EU Wheat Production Forecast to Drop in 2022
Declining Production and Trade
According to recent estimates, soft wheat production in the European Union (EU-27), excluding durum, is projected to fall to a mere 11,650 Mt, marking a significant decline compared to previous years. This forecast, provided by Stratégie, indicates that the upcoming wheat harvest will be the smallest since 2018.
Impact on Market Dynamics
The anticipated decrease in wheat production is expected to have several repercussions on market conditions. The European Union is a major player in the global grain market, and a smaller wheat harvest could result in reduced availability and potentially higher prices. This, in turn, may translate into increased demand for wheat from other regions, potentially leading to increased competition and volatility in the global market.
Reasons for the Decline
Several factors have contributed to the anticipated drop in wheat production in the EU. Adverse weather conditions, such as drought and excessive rainfall, have affected crop yields in certain regions. Additionally, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the supply chain, leading to increased input costs for farmers and potential transportation delays.
Projections for Other Grains
The forecast also includes projections for other cereal crops. Barley output in the EU is expected to decline by over 9%, while demand for EU wheat is anticipated to remain robust in the upcoming 2022-23 season, which begins this summer. These forecasts highlight the dynamic nature of the agricultural markets and the challenges faced by producers and consumers alike in the face of evolving global events.
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